Anyone watching the UK news will know we are living in turbulent times. In a few days the people of Scotland will decide if they are going to become independent. I believe the people have the right to decide what happens to them, so if the “Yes” vote comes out on top I wish them well. What does seem interesting is people on either side of the debate making very definitive statements about the success or failure of independence when a couple of very important points are yet to be decided.
- Will an independent Scotland be part of the EU? *
- What currency will an independent Scotland be using? *
Of course, there are lots of other important questions, but just focussing on these two for a minute, how can anyone make any firm predictions about the success or failure of independence without at least knowing the answer to these questions up front? How can you predict the economic impact of a split without knowing this? This not only affects the internal economy of Scotland, but it seems like it will have a massive impact on import/export side of the economy.
I’m not a politician and I’m not an economist, so I freely admit that I have no clue about this stuff, but it strikes me that everything I’m hearing from both sides sounds like complete bullshit. If I were a Scottish person I would be really confused about which way to go, because there seems to be very little in the way of solid facts.
I really hope the Scottish don’t choose to leave us, but time will tell. It will certainly be a major talking point for quite some time!
* As Jason Arneil pointed out in the comments, both questions have been answered by the pro-independence folks. They say yes to the EU and yes to keeping the pound. My issue is, there does not seem to be a definitive answer based on fact. It’s just propaganda coming from both sides. My understanding is:
- There will be no definitive answer to the EU issue until after a successful Yes vote, because negotiations with the EU will not start until after the result is known.
- The big 3 parties in the UK currently say they will not accept an independent Scotland using the pound. The Yes camp suggest this is a bluff.
As I’ve said, I’m not an expert in this and both sides are doing a propaganda assault at the moment, so it is hard to know the real truth, but it seems to me there is no consensus on the “real” answers to these questions. If I was a voter in this, I would have no clue what the reality of this situation is.